There are
two basic
truths to
mid-term
elections in
America –
they are won
on themes,
and,
historically
speaking at
least, they
are usually
lost by the
party in
power.
In the mid-terms of 1994,
the elections
were about the
corruption of
the
Democrat-controlled
Congress and the
failed attempt
by the Clinton
Administration
to establish a
socialized
health care
system.
In 1998, the
elections were
about President
Clinton’s
impeachment, and
the belief among
many voters that
the Republican
majority in
Congress had
overreached and
was ignoring
other important
issues in its
drive to hold
the President
accountable.
In 2002, the
elections were
about the
September 11th
terrorist
attacks, and the
belief that our
country – led by
President Bush
and a
Republican-controlled
House — needed
to do everything
possible to keep
the American
people and our
homeland secure.
In the first two
cases, the party
in power either
lost seats in
Congress
(Republicans in
1998) or lost
control of
Congress
altogether
(Democrats in
1994). In the
2002 elections,
Republicans
defied history
and actually
gained seats.
But if
Republicans
proved the
exception to the
rule in 2002, it
was because 2002
was an
exceptional
year; the
elections were
held in the
shadow of 9/11,
with the memory
of that awful
day still fresh
in voters’
minds.
As we approach the
five year
anniversary of
the terrorist
attacks, one
thing should be
clear:
political
partisanship has
returned to
America, which
means the basic
truth of the
2006 elections
will be that the
Republican
majority is
likely to lose
seats in
November –
unless, of
course, they do
something about
it by putting
forward a
positive agenda
that will help
them win seats
instead.
One member of Congress
who is playing a
key role in
doing just that
is Republican
Representative
Mark Kirk of
Illinois.
Congressman Kirk
is the leader of
a group of just
over 20 members
of the House of
Representatives
who are working
on an agenda
geared around
the lives of
people who
reside in
America’s
suburbs.
Why the suburbs?
Over the past few
decades,
suburban voters
have usually
been a key to
Republican
victories.
However, in more
recent
elections, they
have gone from
being a bastion
of electoral
success to a
political
battleground
where previously
reliable GOP
votes are now up
for grabs.
As part of the
effort to craft
a suburban
agenda,
Congressman Kirk
commissioned a
national poll
among 1,000
likely suburban
voters between
January 24 and
26, 2006, to
learn more about
the issues that
are important to
them and their
views on the
election this
year. These
suburban voters
were chosen from
predetermined
suburban
counties across
the nation in
targeted
Congressional
districts. For
Republicans, the
results reveal
not only the
challenges that
lie ahead, but
the
opportunities,
as well.
The challenges lie in the
numbers. On the
generic vote for
Congress, for
example,
Democrats are
leading 36
percent to 33
percent. There
is also a
pronounced
gender gap among
suburban voters,
with men
supporting
Republicans for
Congress by a
margin of 37
percent to 33
percent, and
women supporting
Democrats by a
margin of 39
percent to 29
percent. Two
other segments
of concern are
independent
voters, who are
62 percent
undecided with a
plurality
favoring
Democrats, and
suburban
pro-choice
women, who
prefer Democrats
for Congress by
a margin of 50
percent to 19
percent.
Among all suburban voters, 56
percent believe
the country is
heading down the
wrong track,
while only 32
percent see it
headed in the
right
direction.
Generally
speaking, if
suburban voters
say America is
on the wrong
track, they will
vote Democrat by
a margin of 56
percent to 14
percent. A lot
of this has to
do with
perceptions
about the war in
Iraq. A
plurality of
suburban voters
— 40 percent, to
be exact —
believes that
America is
losing the war.
Even more
distressing is
the fact that
among those who
are undecided in
their choice for
Congress, only
26 percent say
America is
winning the war,
while 34 percent
think we are
losing.
Moving beyond
the numbers.
Clearly, this survey
confirms that
Republicans face
a real challenge
in winning over
suburban voters
in 2006. It also
confirms that
just as homeland
security was on
the minds of
American voters
in 2002, the war
in Iraq is on
the minds of
many suburban
voters today.
But beyond these
numbers and
beyond this one
issue, the
survey reveals
one other key
thing – mainly,
that the GOP can
win the suburban
vote if it puts
forward a plan
that makes a
difference in
people’s daily
lives.
The agenda being
developed by
Congressman Kirk
and the other
members of the
suburban caucus
would achieve
that goal. In
fact, the survey
revealed that
the issues and
ideas being
developed as
part of the
Suburban Agenda
have a real
resonance among
voters in
suburban
America. These
issues and
ideas, and the
response they
received in the
survey,
include:
Helping small
businesses
provide health
coverage for
their employees
— 92 percent of
those surveyed
favor providing
tax credits to
small business
owners who
provide health
insurance for
their employees.
Making sure our kids are
secure in the
classroom
— 89 percent
favor passing a
school safety
bill, permitting
federal
background
checks on new
teachers to
prevent
criminals or
pedophiles from
being hired.
Only 7 percent
opposed such
background
checks as an
invasion of
privacy.
Making sure our kids are
secure online
— 87 percent
favor requiring
schools and
libraries to
install internet
filters to
protect children
from child
pornography and
Internet
predators. Only
9 percent
thought that
this proposal
violated free
speech.
Keeping drugs and
firearms out of
schools
— 86 percent
favor allowing
school officials
to check their
students’
lockers for
illegal drugs or
weapons without
the permission
of the student.
Only 11 percent
felt this would
invade the
privacy rights
of students.
Making sure people don’t lose
their health
care when they
change jobs —
84 percent favor
requiring health
insurance plans
to be portable
so that when
people change
jobs, they do
not lose their
insurance. Only
9 percent
thought this
would be too
burdensome a
federal
regulation.
Helping parents plan for
their kids’
future
— 84 percent
favor
establishing
what is being
called a “401
KIDS tax”
deferred savings
account plan to
give parents the
ability to
establish tax
free savings
accounts for
their children.
Making sure
teachers are
qualified
— 83 percent
favor requiring
teachers to pass
a periodic
competency test
to ensure they
are current in
their subject
matter. Only 13
percent opposed
this idea
because it
increases
demands on
teachers’ time
and attention.
Strengthening
personal
property rights
— 81 percent
favor protecting
homeowners’
property rights
by limiting the
ability of local
governments to
seize property
for the purpose
of private
development.
Only 15 percent
would allow
seizing property
for private
development with
compensation.
Making sure
attorneys can’t
take advantage
of Superfund
legal fees
— 80 percent
favor limiting
the
Environmental
Superfund legal
fees to 10
percent so that
90 percent of
the fund is
spent on
restoration.
Only 11 percent
would not limit
time and cost.
Helping
people buy their
first house
— 75 percent
favor a $5,000
tax credit for
first time
homebuyers to
make
homeownership
more affordable.
Helping people save
for when they
get sick
– 73 percent
favor allowing a
person to set
aside money,
free from taxes,
in a Medical
Savings Account
to be used to
pay medical
bills and
insurance
premiums. Only
16 percent would
permit Americans
to only use
state regulated
and approved
insurance plans.
Keeping driver’s
licenses out of
illegal
immigrants’
hands — 73
percent favor
prohibiting
states from
issuing driver’s
licenses to
illegal
immigrants.
Only 19 percent
thought giving
undocumented
workers driver’s
licenses would
encourage more
car insurance
and driver
testing.
Keeping gangs out of
schools
— 70 percent
favor increasing
federal funding
to fight against
gangs in schools
who are linked
to international
drug cartels.
Only 21 percent
thought this was
an unnecessary
expansion into
local police
jurisdiction.
Encouraging people to
conserve land
— 69 percent
favor federal
tax incentives
to individuals
and businesses
for donating
their privately
owned open space
for
environmental
conservation.
Putting an end to
frivolous
lawsuits
— 68 percent
favor stopping
frivolous
lawsuits against
doctors by
capping medical
malpractice
awards at
$250,000 in
economic
damages. Only 26
percent would
give patients
unlimited rights
to sue their
doctor or
hospital.
Improving electronic
medical
recordkeeping
— 61 percent
favor setting a
federal date for
all doctors and
hospitals to
keep electronic
medical
records. Only
26 percent
opposed it
because it would
be easier to
invade private
medical records.
Helping parents save for
college
— 61 percent
favor providing
parents with a
$1,000
educational tax
credit to be
used for their
child’s
educational
expenses. Only
32 percent
preferred
increasing
federal spending
on government
programs to
assist public
schools over the
tax credit.
The consensus for these issues
is so broad and
so wide, that
they can
certainly
attract support
from a majority
of suburban
voters. Nine of
these issues
poll over 80
percent support.
Another eight
issues receive
an over 60
percent
majority. If
political
strategy is
based upon
significant
public opinion
numbers, it
would be hard to
develop a more
popular agenda.
The real challenge, of course,
will be to make
progress on
these issues
before November.
Time is running
short. Work
needs to begin
immediately to
get this done.
Legislation
needs to be
strategically
introduced in
the House in the
spring and early
summer, and then
promoted by the
membership when
they return to
their districts
for their August
work period.
Likewise,
Republicans also
need to craft a
comprehensive
communications
strategy to sell
this plan for
what it is – a
positive effort
to make
government work.
Implemented successfully,
the Democrat
opposition will
have only two
real choices: 1)
adopt and pass
this
legislation,
which will give
the Republican
majority real
accomplishments
to point to in
the election;
or, 2) fight a
losing battle
against this
agenda, which in
turn will give
the GOP
important
contrast issues
in November.
For Republicans, it’s a
win-win
proposition
either way,
which is why the
Suburban Agenda
is not only the
kind of plan
parties win
elections with,
but the kind of
plan parties in
power need to
retain and build
upon their
majority.
RF
John McLaughlin
is the CEO of
McLaughlin and
Associates. |
